Crisis on the Great Colombia.

In the early 1800s, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama were one country. This "Republic of Colombia" only lasted about a dozen years and was Simón Bolívar's dream of a unified nation.

Now, this notion seems not only distant but also shocking in two ways.

One, it's hard to believe that with the recent hostilities in the region, they were once unified; and two, surprising as it might seem, it might be just that unification is what is on its way now in Hugo Chávez's mind.

Along with having almost the exact same flag and a very similar "northern South American" Spanish accent, those three nations were historically friendly. They would refer to each other as brothers, had great commercial relations and a good cultural interchange.

But things changed a little bit in the '80s and '90s. The '90s were probably the darkest and bloodiest years of the guerrilla warfare in Colombia. It made many Colombians flee to their brotherly neighborhood countries: Venezuela and Ecuador.
Like in most of the immigrant stories, sometimes the host countries developed hostile feelings toward those seeking refuge. As the power of the guerrilla warfare increased, the violence started to spill toward the neighborhood countries.
Hostile feelings between Venezuelans and Ecuadorians toward Colombians started to rise, because they related all the Colombians to the guerrilla- and drug-related violence.

The big antagonistic problems are more recent, though. Álvaro Uribe Vélez, Colombia's president, has been in power since 2002. He is the lone ranger, conservative, U.S.-educated, pro-free-trade president.

Chávez and Rafael Correa, Ecuador's president, are part of the new left-wing ideology that has been taking over Latin America in the last decades.

This ideological difference has been impacted by the role of the U.S. supporting Colombia's "war on drugs" and the increasing rivalry between President George W. Bush and Chávez.

Lately, Chavez has been talking about the Great Colombia again. He has been arming himself ever since he got in power. Projecting that he wants to take over the whole continent is a little bit too abrupt to say.

Still, the fear is almost always present for some Colombians.

Kosovo declares Independence!

Kosovo's Prime Minister proclaim independence on Sunday Feb. 17th, 2008.


What a moment. This is historic as it gets. The next days and the developments of this independence are going to be crucial for many reasons.

It'd be important to follow up the reactions of Serbia and Russia. But also, of other countries like Spain, Turkey, Ireland and China.


Kosovo is an example of successful division and countries that deal with separatist movements, like the Basques in Spain and Kurds in Turkey, fear that Kosovo could happen on their lands.



"We have waited for this day for a very long time... from today, we are proud, independent and free, " Hashim Thaci Kosovo the Prime Minister said.

It's mandatory to fallow as well the potential armed conflict that might arise. Already there is been problems in the part of Kosovo where there is a majority of Serbians and in the Serbian capital, Belgrade.

I was in Belgrade a couple of months ago and I never thought this would actually happen now. Serbia and Montenegro was the last piece of former Yugoslavia loose union. Montenegro declared independence in 2006 and now, Kosovo's Albanian majority does the same.

Out of the two million people in Kosovo, around 90% are Albanians, and the Serbs are the minority. The region has been under NATO control since 1999 at the end of the armed conflict when NATO -under the Clinton administration - drove out the Serb forces.

"The independence of Kosovo marks the end of the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia," Mr.Thaci, the prime minister said.

Kudos to Alexander!

For a very different week to all the weeks I've been at CSULB.
For the President's Forum on International Human Rights, "Modern Genocides and Global Responsibilities."
Kudos and more Kudos!

http://www.csulb.edu/president/humanrights/

So, what's this big buzz about an American economic recession? The current
crisis of the world's biggest economy of course impacted the primary
elections. For months and months, the Iraq war was the main issue for the
voters. Now, it shifted to the state of the economy.
Most of us know that is something related to the house market and probably
the huge spending in Iraq. That's just the beginning.
For the past three weeks I've been following the markets. I used to always
pay attention to the numbers in the Dow and the Latin American, European and
Asian Markets. It was good if most of them were in green and if in red, the
number weren't too far from zero.

Then, during a typical nightly conversation with one of my friends, we were
commenting the state of the global economy and he mention how worried he was
for the imminent American recession and what that could mean for his
investments in Brazil.

Many "wows." First, it made me feel old. Someone my age, that I've known for
years, not an unknown foreign millionaire, had investments abroad. Second,
this big, abstract and distant concept of "Global Economy" had a known face,
my friend's and his little investment in Brazil.


During January there were two "black Mondays." While Wall Street was closed
because of the MLK holiday, the European and Latin American markets felt
around six points. If you are not familiar with the markets, that is very
unusual. The gains and lost don't really move more or less than two or three
points. After a brutal beginning on January 22nd the Down was able to finish
better, still losing but not so bad.

One of the main reasons for the re-float was the interest rate cut made by
the Federal Reserve. The interest rate went from 4.25 per cent to 3.5 per
cent. The biggest cut in 25 years. Later that month, on January 30th, after
their scheduled meeting the interest rate went down another half-point. That
same day the government gave the numbers of the economic growth of 2007,
only 2.2 per cent, the weakest in five year. The expectations for 2008
aren't encouraging either; the experts anticipate a weak 1.5 per cent. On
the other hand during the same year, China the fastest growing economy,
growth rate was 11.4 per cent.


Besides the slow economic growth and the budget deficit there are other
problems. The record-high oil prices and the low interest rates increase
inflation. That has a direct effect on the value of the dollar, which has
been falling horrible against the euro and the British pound.

Because of the inherent interdependent qualities of a global economy a
potential recession not only will affect the US but also could have a strong
impact on minor economies and even strong markets like the European union
and Japan.
The countries that depend on exports to the US would feel the effects
first, because their goods will become cheaper with a cheaper dollar and
because the US would have to cut down its imports.
Even if a recession hasn't started the fear of it makes the markets
volatiles around the world, complicating the situation even more.
Although things look pretty ugly it's still too early to panic. Some of the
developing nation's economies had been getting stronger and stronger and the
potential crisis could find them in a good shape. That way, hopefully, the
crisis wont spread too broad helping to get things back in normal.

Bush should sign the economic stimulus bill next week. It's supposed to "stimulate" the economy by making people shop. Even when I'm ready to receive $600 and maybe, finally, get a Mac, I'm know sure this is the best way to energize the economy. Of course, none of the presidential runners or the people on congress nor Bush want to be the mean person that denied the people some extra cash. Although some additional lunch money is never bad, it will definitely not fix the deeper and more complex problems that the country is going through.